Ο καιρός γαρ εγγύς για την Γερμανία

14:43 19/4/2012 - Πηγή: Olympia

The bond holder

Παρακάτω Άρθρο που διαβάζετε από όλους τους Bond traders. Βγαίνει κάθε μέρα το πρωί πριν ανοίξουν οι αγορές στην Ευρώπη. Κύρια σημεία του σημερινού άρθρου.

· Η συνταγή της Γερμανίας θα αποτύχει – ήταν ένα τρελό σχέδιο

· Οι ευρωπαϊκές τράπεζες θα αναγκαστούν να πουλήσουν 3,8 τρις δολάρια από το ενεργητικό τους. Πρόβλημα για την Αμερικανική οικονομία.

· Ζητά να φύγει ο Κεντρικός τραπεζίτης της Γερμανίας γιατί τα έκανε θάλασσα.

· Τα ευρωπαϊκά stress tests δεν είναι σωστά

·

Τα CDS δείχνουν ότι 4 χώρες θα έχουν κούρεμα. Σήμερα είναι μια κρίσιμη μέρα γιατί η Ισπανία πουλά 10 ετη ομόλογα.

· Αusterity without growth does not work – plain and simple. Λιτότητα χωρίς ανάπτυξη δεν δουλεύει. Λάθος συνταγή.

· Η Γερμανία θα πληρώσει ακριβά την συνταγή που διάλεξε για τις άλλες χώρες.

Ο καιρός γαρ εγγύς. Καλή σας μέρα

Italy has revised its numbers. GDP this year has been reduced to -1.2% (+0.5%, from +0.3% previously in 2013), from -0.5% previously, the budget deficit raised to +1.7% (-0.5%, from -0.1% previously in 2013), from +1.6%. The IMF suggests that the budget deficit will be -2.4% this year, and that GDP will decline by -1.9% for comparison purposes.
Mr Monti essentially is having a tougher time and over optimistic views as to his achievements will have to be tempered. Italy looks as if it is followed Spain in ignoring the German inspired “fiscal compact”. Well what a surprise – I think not. In coming months, the German prescription is going to be ignored – once again no surprise, it was lunacy in the 1st place and totally unachievable anyway;

The only EZ country that has met its targets is Ireland. The Irish finance minister reported that the country would meet it’s budget deficit target this year. He admitted that growth was “a little disappointing” YTD, though expects a pick up in the 2nd half of the year. Apparently, the authorities are E400mn ahead in terms of revenue collection;

The IMF suggests that 58 European banks will have to sell some US$3.8tr of assets in the worse case scenario. The baseline forecast suggests asset sales of US$2.6tr over the next 18 months. The relevant banks disposed of US$580bn of assets in the 4th Q 2011 and the IMF warned that European banks may dump 7.0% of their assets by the end of next year. Hmmm. The fund believes that credit supply will decline by -1.7% as banks reduce lending. They added that better policies would result in a smaller -6.0% reduction in bank balance sheets, with a positive +0.6% increase in growth as a result. If EZ officials failed to act, bank balance sheets would shrink by 10%, resulting in a -1.4% fall in EZ output and a global retrenchment in credit, as stress was transmitted to the US financial system through the derivative markets and the fire sale of assets. The IMF’s chief economist calls for a state funded bank recap scheme.

In addition, the IMF’s Global Financial Stability Report states