Trump, Trade, and Tourism: External Factors Shaping Greece’s 2025 Growth Path

08:51 24/1/2025 - Πηγή: Dikaiologitika

The Foundation for Economic and Industrial Research (IOBE), a leading Greek economic think tank, has released its latest quarterly report on Thursday, projecting a 2.4% growth rate for Greece’s economy in 2025.

The Foundation for Economic and Industrial Research (IOBE), a leading

Greek economic think tank, has released its latest quarterly report on Thursday, projecting a 2.4% growth rate for Greece’s economy in 2025. This marks a slight improvement from the anticipated 2.3% growth for 2024. However, the forecast comes with caveats tied to global factors, including potential shifts in U.S. trade policy under President Donald Trump, which could impact international economic dynamics.

The report identifies investment growth as the primary driver of Greece’s economic expansion, with investments expected to rise by 9.5% in 2025. Private consumption is forecasted to see a modest increase of 1.6%. On the external trade front, exports are predicted to grow by 2.8%, while imports will rise by 1.9%, contributing to a slight improvement in Greece’s trade balance.

A key factor underpinning Greece’s economic performance is the continued implementation of its Recovery and Resilience Plan, supported by European Union funds. The plan has spurred investment, improved business confidence, and benefited from declining interest rates, which have enhanced access to credit for Greek businesses.

Despite these positive trends, challenges remain. Inflation in Greece is expected to be slightly higher than the Eurozone average at 2.4%, while the unemployment rate, though declining, is forecasted to still hover at 9.3%. Additionally, the country’s current account deficit is projected to widen to €11.5 billion in 2025, driven by reduced fuel exports and increased imports of goods, despite gains in tourism revenues and services trade.

The report also highlights risks that could derail these forecasts, including geopolitical instability, volatility in energy prices, delays in addressing the country’s legacy of non-performing loans, and high structural unemployment. Furthermore, potential changes in U.S. trade policies and global market dynamics could have ripple effects on the Greek economy.

During the report’s presentation, IOBE President Yannis Retsos underscored the global nature of these challenges, particularly as they relate to shifting U.S. policies on trade, environmental action, and economic relations. He stressed that such shifts could impact not only Greece but also the competitiveness of the broader European economy.
IOBE General Director Professor Nikos Vettas echoed these concerns, noting that while Greece’s economic indicators show steady improvement, external uncertainties create a complex environment. He highlighted the slow but positive convergence of Greece’s economy with the rest of Europe, supported by macroeconomic and fiscal stability. However, he acknowledged persistent gaps in certain sectors that require attention.

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