Do Syrian Kurds strategically miscalculate with striking oil deal with the US?

08:23 22/9/2020 - Πηγή: Armynow

For the Kurdish-dominated autonomous administration of northeastern Syria the momentary benefit from the agreement signed with the American oil firm could turn a complete failure in the long term.

By: Ahmed Al-Khaled

For the Kurdish-dominated autonomous administration of northeastern Syria the momentary benefit from the agreement signed with the American oil firm could turn a complete failure in the long

term.

The controversial agreement signed between the Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and the U.S. administration-affiliated oil company “Delta Crescent Energy” in early August generated a huge public backlash. Some countries and regional governments were quick to condemn the deal, whose details were kept strictly secret for a year as it turned out.

However, recent reports dispelled any doubts about why the United States actually needed this deal. Several sources familiar with the content of the contract also confirmed that the key objective is to deny Damascus access to oil fields, as well as to cut it completely off from any revenue of the energy production in the region.

At the same time, the motivation of the Kurdish authorities remains unclear. If Americans are gradually pursuing a strategy of political and economic deterrence against Damascus attempting to oust the long-time leader Bashar Asad, the Kurdish manoeuvre looks like playing along with the United States than a thoughtful, far-sighted decision.

Al-Monitor analysts suggest that by doing this the Kurds attempted to achieve a set of ambitious and interlinking goals, the main of which is to acquire the independent status of autonomy. That is why Kurdish leaders decided to cement a U.S. military presence in northeastern Syria and provide U.S. business will with a green light.

The Kurds believe that diversifying relations with the United States, the world’s superpower, which contributes to deeper cooperation with Washington, will eventually lead to international recognition of the Kurdish administration. In this sense, the approach of the Syrian Kurds is very much similar to that of their Iraqi brethren. As they were able to strengthen both economic independence and political autonomy from Baghdad after they fixed things with Turkey, granting it a considerable portion of contracts in the oil-fueled construction in the Iraqi Kurdistan.

As for the Syrian Kurds, they are unlikely to be able to repeat the same scenario. If the SDF leadership headed by Mazlum Abdi hoped that it could implement this project with the help of the U.S. involvement under the current circumstances, it miscalculated and underestimated potential challenges that it could face.

First, the position of the SDF is much more shaky and vulnerable than the Kurds in Iraqi Kurdistan. Despite the defiance of official authorities in Baghdad, it was enough for the Iraqi Kurds to make a deal with Turkey to gain access to the oil markets on the southern Mediterranean coast and ensure autonomy from the Iraqi authorities.

The Syrian Kurds must be willing to face at least heavy negotiations with a large number of regional and international players or even an open confrontation with the unfriendly northern neighbour. Apart from the Syrian government, which already claimed the deal was stealing Syrian oil, the normalization of relations with Ankara remains the most problematic issue for the Kurdish administration. Especially given the fact that Turkey considers the SDF a Syrian affiliate of the PKK terrorist organization and already conducted a large-scale operation “Peace Spring” against them in northern Syria in 2019.

Kurdish unilateral actions that ignore the interests of Damascus, Moscow’s main ally, and Turkish concerns could completely destroy their dreams of potential autonomy. And if Damascus will limit itself to applying to international arbitration courts, which more than likely declare the deal null and void, Ankara could apparently go further and resume fighting to prevent the Kurdish forces from strengthening their positions at the Turkish southern border.

In such case, it would be extremely risky for the Kurdish side to count on the help of a reduced American presence which is currently entirely engaged in protecting the oil fields. The practice has shown, when the U.S. faced the dilemma of supporting the Kurds or saving relations with a partner state, it chose the latter. In the past, Washington has already opposed the referendum on the independence of Iraqi Kurdistan in 2017 and effectively authorized the Turkish military operation “Peace Spring” in 2019, which cost the Kurds the loss of many lives and a huge part of the territory.

If the Kurds distanced themselves from the multilateral coordination, they face dramatic consequences, up to international sanctions or military aggression. The worsener thing is also that the SDF risk deteriorating relations with European states that have been long sympathetic to the Kurdish problem in Syria.

Ahmad al-Khaled is a freelance journalist with primary focus on the involvement of foreign actors in the Syrian conflict and its consequences on both regional and global levels.

The post Do Syrian Kurds strategically miscalculate with striking oil deal with the US? appeared first on ARMYNOW.NET.